Sat 3 Oct · 15:28Z

Polymarket

Markets

Every release market on Polymarket, by line: what traders will pay to be right about a launch date.

$347ktraded in 24 hours across 56 markets

Release timetables

LIVE · POLYMARKET

Each stop is the price of "released by" that date. A thin book (a spread over 10¢, or one side empty) shows its bid–ask range in grey, never one price.

Anthropic line

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by…?$12k 24h

45% 10 Oct70% 17 Oct82% 24 Oct94% 31 Oct

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on…?$2k 24h

2% On or prior to 3 Oct2% 4 Oct4% 5 Oct5–24% 6 Oct

Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released on…?$649 24h

5% 3 Oct1% 4 Oct2–19% 5 Oct1–20% 6 Oct

Claude 6 released by…?$391 24h

31–48% 31 Mar 202768% 30 Jun 202792% 31 Dec 2027

Alibaba Qwen line

Next Alibaba Qwen Plus (3.8+) released by…?$641 24h

18% 7 Oct18% 15 Oct48–94% 31 Oct90% 31 Dec

OpenAI line

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by…?$26k 24h

2% 9 Oct7% 16 Oct10% 23 Oct22–37% 31 Oct

8 more release markets

OpenAI line

Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by…?$1k 24h

11% 31 Oct11–29% 30 Nov

Google DeepMind line

Gemini 4.0 released by…?$31k 24h

3% 5 Oct10–42% 10 Oct57% 15 Oct84% 31 Oct

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by…?$4k 24h

3% 9 Oct8% 15 Oct9% 23 Oct23% 31 Oct

Next Gemini Pro Model released on…?$4k 24h

1% 3 Oct1% 4 Oct1% 5 Oct1–13% 6 Oct

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?$4k 24h

2% 28 Sep – 4 Oct2% 5 Oct – 11 Oct4% 12 Oct – 18 Oct11% 19 Oct – 25 Oct

Meta line

Meta's Watermelon released on…?$7k 24h

1% 3 Oct1% 4 Oct4% 5 Oct3% 6 Oct

Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on…?$859 24h

0% 3 Oct1% 4 Oct4% 5 Oct10% 6 Oct

Meta's "Watermelon" model released by…?$707 24h

50–71% 15 Oct76% 31 Oct91% 30 Nov

Best model race

$138k 24h

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Google

65%

Anthropic

36%

OpenAI

1%

Meta

0%

SpaceXAI

0%

Alibaba

0%

Moonshot

0%

Baidu

0%

Benchmark and other markets

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?$31k

1% 1500+1% 1470+1% 1480+

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?$23k

53% Anthropic39% Google7% OpenAI

Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?$19k

92% 45%+81% 50%+48% 55%+

Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Text Arena Debut?$19k

98% 1440+1% 1460+0–1% 1480+

Which company has the best AI model end of November?$4k

56% Google40% Anthropic3% OpenAI

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?$3k

82% 1400+63% 1420+35% 1440+

6 more markets

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?$1k

37% 1480+35% 1495+35% 1490+

Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?$829

87% 1500+87% 1510+56% 1520+

Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?$640

93% 45%+88% 50%+28% 55%+

Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?$636

86% 40%+69–88% 45%+69% 50%+

What will the next Muse model family be named?$10k

15% Muse Flare14% Muse Watermelon13% Muse Fire

Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?$40

60–93% $40+26–51% $50+16–33% $60+