whenmodel: frontier model release intelligence, home
Sources DEGRADEDTue 3 Nov · 14:38Z

Service status: MARKETS SMELL A DROP

Now boarding. Markets price a named frontier release as likely within 7 days.

Level 2 of 5 · lead score 59/100

Next model departing

O

GPT Astra 6.1+

OpenAI line · service GPT Astra 6.1+

NOT A FORECAST · times are crowd estimates

chance it departs within 7 days

Boarding window

by Sun 15 Nov

73% by 15 Nov on Polymarket, its first stop

LIVE · POLYMARKET as of 3 Nov 14:38Z

Then

Odds of departing by Tue 10 Nov
  1. FableAnthropic line36%
  2. Gemini CarbonGoogle DeepMind line32%
XDMWQ

xAI, DeepSeek, Meta, Mistral, Alibaba Qwen: times unavailable. Their markets are too thin for a 7-day estimate.

ZK

Z.ai GLM, Moonshot Kimi: no timetable. Nobody is betting on these lines.

Recent arrivals

PARTIAL · 4/6 SOURCES
  1. G
    Gemini 4 Carbon

    Arr. Wed 28 Oct 17:01Z · Google DeepMind

From OpenRouter listings, lab posts and Hacker News. Shown, not scored. Every source on Radar